IP Source

Thursday, 26 January 2012

 A simulation conducted at INSS in late October 2011 staged responses to a scenario of Iran carrying out a nuclear test. The simulation process and the analytical discussions that followed represent one of the functions of the Institute: to anticipate potential future situations in order to comprehend the risks and dangers they pose, and in turn help prepare for them. The simulation does not imply that Israel has come to accept a situation of a nuclear Iran.

Among the principal findings of the simulation: Iran does not intend to forfeit the nuclear weapons in its possession, but will attempt to use them to reach an agreement with the major powers to improve its strategic standing; the US administration exerted pressure on Israel not to wage a military strike against Iran, with an implied threat that Israeli military action would harm US-Israel relations; in response to the new situation, Russia proposed to establish a Russo-American defense alliance that would ensure the security of the Middle East state members; Israel's military option stands to be a significant lever, if not vis-à-vis Iran, then for some of the main players; and Iran’s crossing the nuclear threshold will prompt Saudi Arabia to strive to reach a strategic balance with Iran.

Iran: A Strategic Simulation